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Those of you who read us regularly understand better than most that we’re not geniuses. But since we do cover the craft beer industry daily – we’ve plenty of opinions about where things are going this year – and some of them might even be right!
So welcome to the next in our series of craft beer predictions …And if you haven’t already checked out Part I – we’re pissed at you.
The Mainstreaming of Craft Beer Tourism – When states like Montana start funding and designing their own official beer trails, you realize the economic power that is the craft beer tourism industry and just how mainstream it has become…East-coasters are now choosing to spend a week vacationing in Bend, Oregon in much the same way that New Yorkers used to flood the wineries of Sonoma Valley. Craft beer tourism has become its own independent economic engine and it’s only going to get bigger this year.
Quality Will Win Out – There was a time when you could build a highly successful operation brewing decent beer, but maybe not for much longer. In today’s competitive environment, where an increasingly sophisticated consumer has more options than ever before, a beer’s quality will matter more than ever before. We’re not saying that good brewers can’t succeed in the future – we’re just sayin’ the GREAT brewers will set the standard for who survives and who doesn’t.
Price Point Will Become More Important For Craft Beer Consumers – If history has proven us anything, it’s that even in the roughest of economic times, people will continue to drink. And although some economists see us crawling back from a devastating recession – it’s still tough out there for many – some of those feeling the pinch are craft beer fans. Craft beer prices have risen steadily, as have so many other products over the last couple of years, and 2015 will see craft beer consumers becoming even more discriminating about how much they are willing to shell out and for what. Brewers selling good craft beers at decent prices will continue to build market share this year.
Big Distributors Will Get Bigger– The Reyes Beverage Group’s recent acquisition of Gold Coast in Florida highlighted a trend that anyone in the beer business already knows. Beer wholesalers are getting bigger. When you include Anheuser-Busch InBev branches, the top two beer wholesalers now control roughly 10% of the beer market. Consolidation that leaves the fates of many in the hands of a few is never a good thing. And we expect to see more of this kind of thing in 2015. (Hat tip to the BA’s Chief Economist for this one – and you should read his entire piece on Franchise Laws.)
Single Hop Beers – A growing number of IPAs featuring just one specific hop (many of them new and experimental), will hit retail this year.
Top-Tier Beers Will Command Big Bucks at Premium Restaurants – Combine the heightened consumer demand for top-tier and hard-to-get craft beers with America’s ongoing fascination with haute cuisine, and we predict that you’re going to see high-priced beers increasingly becoming status-symbol offerings at upscale restaurants. Folks with big disposable incomes, who have no problem paying for the best, will. And the smart restaurants will step up to accommodate this growing niche.
Things Will Get Tougher For The Independent Beer Retailer – In today’s retail industry, the only players to get top deals from suppliers are large chains and box stores. (We recently saw Stone’s 18th Anniversary Ale being sold at Costco for two dollars cheaper than we’d seen at any of the local craft beer haunts.) Independent retailers are going to find it increasingly hard to compete on price in 2015.
